PLoS One
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2015
·Vol. 10
·期 3
·e0116832
·
IF 3.234
Yan-Ling Zheng,Li-Ping Zhang,Xue-Liang Zhang,Kai Wang,Yu-Jian Zheng
Tuberculosis is a major global public health problem, which also affects economic and social development. China has the second largest burden of tuberculosis in the world. The tuberculosis morbidity in Xinjiang is much higher than the national situation; therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting tuberculosis morbidity so as to make the control of tuberculosis more effective. Recently, the Box-Jenkins approach, specifically the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, is typically applied to predict the morbidity of infectious diseases; it can take into account changing trends, periodic changes, and random disturbances in time series. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are the prevalent tools used to deal with time series heteroscedasticity. In this study, based on the data of the tuberculosis morbidity from January 2004 to June 2014 in Xinjiang, we establish the single ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1) 12 model and the combined ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1) 12 -ARCH (1) model, which can be used to predict the tuberculosis morbidity successfully in Xinjiang. Comparative analyses show that the combined model is more effective. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to establish the ARIMA model and ARIMA-ARCH model for prediction and monitoring the monthly morbidity of tuberculosis in Xinjiang. Based on the results of this study, the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1) 12 -ARCH (1) model is suggested to give tuberculosis surveillance by providing estimates on tuberculosis morbidity trends in Xinjiang, China.
研究领域:
流行病学
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传染病学
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生物统计学
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公共卫生
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预防医学
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DOI
高影响因子
BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES
·
2022
·Vol. 22
·期 1
·1-12
·
IF 3.667
An Qingyu,Wu Jun,Meng Jun,Zhao Zhijie,Bai Jin Jian,Li Xiaofeng
Background Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a malignant infectious disease with high mortality caused by HIV (human immunodeficiency virus, and up to now there are no curable drugs or effective vaccines. In order to understand AIDS’s development trend, we establish hybrid EMD-BPNN (empirical modal decomposition and Back-propagation artificial neural network model) model to forecast new HIV infection in Dalian and to evaluate model’s performance. Methods The monthly HIV data series are decomposed by EMD method, and then all decomposition results are used as training and testing data to establish BPNN model, namely BPNN was fitted to each IMF (intrinsic mode function) and residue separately, and the predicted value is the sum of the predicted values from the models. Meanwhile, using yearly HIV data to established ARIMA and using monthly HIV data to established BPNN, and SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model to compare the predictive ability with EMD-BPNN model. Results From 2004 to 2017, 3310 cases of HIV were reported in Dalian, including 101 fatal cases. The monthly HIV data series are decomposed into four relatively stable IMFs and one residue item by EMD, and the residue item showed that the incidence of HIV increases firstly after declining. The mean absolute percentage error value for the EMD-BPNN, BPNN, SARIMA (1,1,2) (0,1,1) 12 in 2018 is 7.80%, 10.79%, 9.48% respectively, and the mean absolute percentage error value for the ARIMA (3,1,0) model in 2017 and 2018 is 8.91%. Conclusions The EMD-BPNN model was effective and reliable in predicting the incidence of HIV for annual incidence, and the results could furnish a scientific reference for policy makers and health agencies in Dalian.
研究领域:
流行病学
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生物统计学
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传染病学
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公共卫生
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计算生物学
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医学预测建模
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DOI
高影响因子
Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering
·
2024
·
IF 7.4
Yuqian Zhou,Zhongxin Tan
Soft rot is one of the most susceptible soil-borne diseases of pakchoi ( Brassica chinensis L.), severely hindering its industrial development. The research aimed to evaluate the application effect of polyphenols extracted from pineapple peel waste in improving the rhizosphere soil environment of pakchoi infected by soft rot and promoting plant health and growth. We found that using pineapple peel polyphenols (PPPs) at 4 mg/mL concentration (P1 treatment) significantly improved soil quality, reduced pakchoi disease incidence, and effectively promoted pakchoi growth. Compared with the control group (CK), the P1 treatment led to a marked 79.97% reduction in diseased pakchoi leaves. Meanwhile, the rhizosphere soil structure showed reduced diseased genera and increased beneficial bacterial phyla, along with boosted soil enzyme activities. Furthermore, P1 treatment improved key growth parameters of pakchoi, including neck thickness (62.07%), plant height (57.43%), fresh weight (154.52%), dry weight (121.88%), maximum leaf length (47.28%), width (30.98%), and total chlorophyll content (50.11%). The application of PPPs has shown significant effects in enhancing the ecological environment of the diseased soil and reducing the incidence of soft rot disease of pakchoi and has great potential in increasing the yield of pakchoi. This study offers an eco-friendly and sustainable approach for the valorization of PPPs and the management of soil-borne diseases, which holds profound implications for enhancing crop quality, soil health, and human well-being.
研究领域:
农业
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植物病理学
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土壤学
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环境科学
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产品关联
DOI
高影响因子
Journal of Clinical Medicine
·
2022
·Vol. 11
·期 9
·2573
·
IF 4.964
Rocío Redondo-Rodriguez,Natalia Mena-Vázquez,Alba María Cabezas-Lucena,Sara Manrique-Arija,Arkaitz Mucientes,Antonio Fernández-Nebro
Objective: In this study, we aimed to evaluate the worldwide incidence and prevalence of ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV). Methods: A systematic search of Medline and Embase was conducted until June 2020 for studies that analyzed the incidence and prevalence of patients aged >16 years diagnosed with AAV in different geographical areas. A meta-analysis was undertaken to estimate the pooled incidence per million person-years and prevalence per million persons in AAV overall and for each subtype of AAV: granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA), microscopic polyangiitis (MPA), and eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA). The 95% confidence interval (CI) and I2for heterogeneity were calculated. Results: The meta-analysis included 25 studies that met the inclusion criteria and covered a total of 4547 patients with AAV. Frequency increased over time. The global pooled incidence (95% CI) was 17.2 per million person-years (13.3–21.6) and the global pooled prevalence (95% CI) was 198.0 per million persons (187.0–210.0). The pooled incidence per million person-years for each AAV subtype varied from highest to lowest, as follows: GPA, 9.0; MPA, 5.9; and EGPA, 1.7. The individual pooled prevalence per million persons was, as follows: GPA, 96.8; MPA, 39.2; and EGPA, 15.6. AAV was more predominant in the northern hemisphere. By continent, a higher incidence in America and pooled prevalence of AAV was observed in America and Europe. Conclusion: The pooled incidence and prevalence of AAV seem to be increasing over time and are higher in the case of GPA. AAV was generally more frequent (incidence and prevalence) in the northern hemisphere.
研究领域:
风湿病学
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免疫学
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流行病学
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血管炎
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自身免疫性疾病
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临床流行病学
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转化医学
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DOI
高影响因子
Scientific Reports
·
2023
·Vol. 13
·期 1
·1-14
·
IF 4.6
Wen Dingxin,Guo Qingqing,Zhao Wan,Yang Yong,Yang Chunlei,Yu Jun,Hu Yun
Since its discovery as a third unique gaseous signal molecule, hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) has been extensively employed to resist stress and control pathogens. Nevertheless, whether H 2 S can prevent tobacco bacterial wilt is unknown yet. We evaluated the impacts of the H 2 S donor sodium hydrosulfide (NaHS) on the antibacterial activity, morphology, biofilm, and transcriptome of R. solanacearum to understand the effect and mechanism of NaHS on tobacco bacterial wilt. In vitro, NaHS significantly inhibited the growth of Ralstonia solanacearum and obviously altered its cell morphology. Additionally, NaHS significantly inhibited the biofilm formation and swarming motility of R. solanacearum , and reduced the population of R. solanacearum invading tobacco roots. In field experiments, the application of NaHS dramatically decreased the disease incidence and index of tobacco bacterial wilt, with a control efficiency of up to 89.49%. The application of NaHS also influenced the diversity and structure of the soil microbial community. Furthermore, NaHS markedly increased the relative abundances of beneficial microorganisms, which helps prevent tobacco bacterial wilt. These findings highlight NaHS's potential and efficacy as a powerful antibacterial agent for preventing tobacco bacterial wilt caused by R. solanacearum .
研究领域:
植物病理学
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微生物学
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农学
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DOI
PubMed
高影响因子
POSTHARVEST BIOLOGY AND TECHNOLOGY
·
2023
·
IF 7
Yuwei Luo,Xin Chen,Jin Xin Che,Yonghua Zhang,Qiuli Ouyang,Nengguo Tao
Blue mold caused by Penicillium italicum is one of the most devastating postharvest diseases in Citrus fruit. This work aims to determine the antifungal potential of ( E )-2-octenal, a component of plant essential oil, on the mycelial growth and disease incidence of a prochloraz-resistant strain of P. italicum isolated from an orchard in Luxi, Hunan Province, China. An in vitro assay revealed that the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and minimum fungicidal concentration (MFC) of ( E )-2-octenal were 0.25 and 0.50 mL L −1 , respectively. An in vivo assay showed that wax + 4 × MFC ( E )-2-octenal treatment could reduce the blue mold incidence in Ponkan fruit inoculated with P. italicum without impairing fruit quality. Scanning electron microscopy analysis illustrated that the mycelia of P. italicum were anomalously twisted and shrunken upon treatment with ( E )-2-octenal. The primary antifungal targets were attributed to the cell membrane instead of the cell wall based on propidium iodide and calcofluor white staining results. In addition, ( E )-2-octenal induced massive accumulation of reactive oxygen species in hyphae in a dose-dependent manner, leading to oxidative stress and dysfunction of energy and respiration metabolism. At the same time, the activities of phosphofructokinase (PFK) and pyruvate kinase (PK) were decreased in ( E )-2-octenal-treated samples. Taken together, our present study suggested that ( E )-2-octenal could exert its antifungal activity against P. italicum by damaging the function of mitochondria and may be a potential antifungal substance for an alternative to chemical fungicides.
研究领域:
植物科学
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微生物学
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食品科学
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植物病理学
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产品关联
DOI
高影响因子
POSTHARVEST BIOLOGY AND TECHNOLOGY
·
2025
·
IF 6.8
Qiuli OuYang,MingChen Yang,Yonghua Zhang,Lu Li,Xiaoli Tan,Nengguo Tao
Huge postharvest citrus infections are produced by Penicillium digitatum . The antifungal activity of sodium trans -2-hexenylate (STH) against the P. digitatum growth and possible mechanism were investigated. The minimal inhibitory and fungicidal concentrations of STH against P. digitatum were 0.4 and 0.8 g L –1 , respectively. STH decreased the green mold incidence of Ponkan fruit without negatively impacting fruit quality. STH altered and distorted the external appearance of P. digitatum mycelia rather than the cell wall. Correspondingly, STH decreased the lipid and ergosterol levels while degrading the cell membrane integrity. Meanwhile, STH affected mitochondrial function by lowering the mitochondria membrane potential (MMP) and ATP levels, as well as malate dehydrogenase (MDH) and succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) activities. Furthermore, MMP damage occurred earlier than that of cell membrane damage. Our current study showed that STH may be an acceptable substitute to chemical fungicide in postharvest disease control in citrus fruit and its underlying inhibitory mechanism is attributed to its ability to impair the mitochondrial function of P. digitatum .
研究领域:
植物病理学
·
食品科学
·
微生物学
·
农业化学
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产品关联
DOI
高影响因子
JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRIC RESEARCH
·
2022
·
IF 5.25
Xiahong Li,Yu Gu,Miao Qi,Rongxiang Chen,Daimin Xiao,Ping Yuan,Henry Xiang,Xiuquan Shi
Trauma is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity around the world and many trauma patients could suffer from a series of cognitive and mental disorders including acute stress disorder (ASD). Yet, little research has been done to investigate the influencing factors and pathogenesis of post-traumatic ASD. Therefore, this study investigated main influencing factors and neurobiochemical biomarkers of ASD in trauma patients with a purpose of early clinical identification and intervention. The patients were followed up by general questionnaire and Acute Stress Disorder scale (ASDS). Using the diagnostic criteria of ASD, the study participants were divided into ASD group and non-ASD group. The generalized estimating equation (GEE) multivariate analysis suggested that life stress, sleep less than 8 h, trauma from road traffic crash, overall pain intensity, injury severity, overall fear after trauma were risk factors for ASD. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) showed a downward trend in both groups ( P < 0.05), and the ASD group was higher than the non-ASD group ( P = 0.015). Glu to GABA ratio (GGR) in the ASD group were higher than the non-ASD group ( P < 0.001). Both patient demographics and patient's condition could impact the risk of developing ASD after a major injury.
研究领域:
精神病学
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神经科学
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创伤医学
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生物标志物研究
✓ 已验证
产品关联
DOI
PubMed
高影响因子
危险品化学品经营许可证（带存储）