Mosab I. Tabash,Umaid A. Sheikh,Ali Matar,Adel Ahmed,Dang Khoa Tran
The existing literature has explained the causality flow from the exchange rates toward the stock market without explaining the role of the economic crisis in effecting this nexus. This study examines the role of the financial crisis in affecting the nonlinear causality flowing from the exchange rates toward the stock market indexes of the ASEAN-5 region. The precrisis, postcrisis, and overall sample duration comprised 365, 650, and 1085 observations over the periods from January 2002 to January 2008, January 2010 to January 2020, and January 2002 to January 2020, respectively. The results showed that the conventional symmetrical panel ARDL (PARDL) model was not able to formulate long-run cointegration between currency value fluctuations and stock market indexes for both regimes, i.e., the post recessionary and pre recessionary periods. However, asymmetrical cointegration was established between the currency values and stock market indexes for the pre recessionary period and the overall sampling time frame by utilizing the panel-based NARDL framework (PNARDL). The study suggests practical implications for the exporters and importers to consider the regime as well as both the negative and positive shocks in the international dollar values while making forward contractual agreements.
To explore the relations between the number of accident deaths (NCD) and various factors in construction safety, a multiple linear regression model was established, based on the panel data of economy, construction labor, and the number of accident deaths in 31 provinces (regions) of China from 2009 to 2018. The results show that the average total profits and taxes (TPAT), and the death rate of ten thousand people (DR) are positively correlated with NCD, while the labor productivity (LP) is negatively correlated with it. Under the condition that other factors remain unchanged, NCD increases by 0.02 per a hundred million CNY. However, if DR increases by one ten thousand, NCD will increase by 8.66 on average. On the contrary, when LP increases by a hundred million CNY per ten thousand people, NCD decreases by 0.19. The model also predicts NCD in different provinces and cities from 2019 to 2020 with the method of quadratic exponential smoothing. As well, practice results show that the model is effective and practical.
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