Tuberculosis is a major global public health problem, which also affects economic and social development. China has the second largest burden of tuberculosis in the world. The tuberculosis morbidity in Xinjiang is much higher than the national situation; therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting tuberculosis morbidity so as to make the control of tuberculosis more effective. Recently, the Box-Jenkins approach, specifically the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, is typically applied to predict the morbidity of infectious diseases; it can take into account changing trends, periodic changes, and random disturbances in time series. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are the prevalent tools used to deal with time series heteroscedasticity. In this study, based on the data of the tuberculosis morbidity from January 2004 to June 2014 in Xinjiang, we establish the single ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1) 12 model and the combined ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1) 12 -ARCH (1) model, which can be used to predict the tuberculosis morbidity successfully in Xinjiang. Comparative analyses show that the combined model is more effective. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to establish the ARIMA model and ARIMA-ARCH model for prediction and monitoring the monthly morbidity of tuberculosis in Xinjiang. Based on the results of this study, the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1) 12 -ARCH (1) model is suggested to give tuberculosis surveillance by providing estimates on tuberculosis morbidity trends in Xinjiang, China.
An Qingyu,Wu Jun,Meng Jun,Zhao Zhijie,Bai Jin Jian,Li Xiaofeng
Background Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a malignant infectious disease with high mortality caused by HIV (human immunodeficiency virus, and up to now there are no curable drugs or effective vaccines. In order to understand AIDS’s development trend, we establish hybrid EMD-BPNN (empirical modal decomposition and Back-propagation artificial neural network model) model to forecast new HIV infection in Dalian and to evaluate model’s performance. Methods The monthly HIV data series are decomposed by EMD method, and then all decomposition results are used as training and testing data to establish BPNN model, namely BPNN was fitted to each IMF (intrinsic mode function) and residue separately, and the predicted value is the sum of the predicted values from the models. Meanwhile, using yearly HIV data to established ARIMA and using monthly HIV data to established BPNN, and SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model to compare the predictive ability with EMD-BPNN model. Results From 2004 to 2017, 3310 cases of HIV were reported in Dalian, including 101 fatal cases. The monthly HIV data series are decomposed into four relatively stable IMFs and one residue item by EMD, and the residue item showed that the incidence of HIV increases firstly after declining. The mean absolute percentage error value for the EMD-BPNN, BPNN, SARIMA (1,1,2) (0,1,1) 12 in 2018 is 7.80%, 10.79%, 9.48% respectively, and the mean absolute percentage error value for the ARIMA (3,1,0) model in 2017 and 2018 is 8.91%. Conclusions The EMD-BPNN model was effective and reliable in predicting the incidence of HIV for annual incidence, and the results could furnish a scientific reference for policy makers and health agencies in Dalian.
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